Election Day Advice

What to expect tonight.

It is likely we will not know the winner of the election tonight. Critical swing states such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada are often officially called in the days after the election. If this election is close, we will not have an official result until Thursday or later.

This ambiguity leaves us vulnerable to misinformation and attempts to subvert the democratic process. Here are some things to look out for and some messaging advice on how to handle it:

The Red Mirage

In-person voting on election day is counted first, which tends to lean more Republican. In addition, more populated urban centers take a bit longer to report their numbers. This results in Trump having an early lead, which narrows over time as more votes are reported. This is known as the “red mirage.”

This happened most dramatically in Pennsylvania in 2020 when an early Trump lead vanished as votes from Philadelphia started to come in. This “delay” became a central argument in the big lie, as Trump and his minions insinuated that his lead was erased through fraudulent votes.

Expect his campaign to triple down on this rhetoric tonight.

Don’t fret, don’t panic, don’t buy into the BS. Insist that every vote be counted.

Trump will give a victory speech.

Donald Trump will use the Red Mirage to claim victory before any swing states are officially called. I assume he will want to do this during prime time, which means before 10 p.m. Eastern.

This is another tactic to sow doubt in the results. Again, don’t buy it.

The AP has a 99.9% success rate in calling states. Trust them, not the Trump campaign or other right-wing outlets. CNN, MSNBC, and even Fox News’s decision desks are reliable at calling states.

So ignore anyone else's claims about a state and trust the sources that have been calling these elections for decades.

Better to be accurate than fast.

It is okay if it takes a few days for the election to be officially called. The new administration is not sworn in until January 20th. States have until December to certify their votes. Democracy won’t crumble if we don’t have a result immediately tonight.

It will crumble if premature declarations by campaigns and court interventions prevent all votes from counting. So let’s have some patience, let’s allow the process to play out, let’s ensure the results are accurate and all votes have been counted.

Talking Points

Here are some good resources for talking points that can be used tonight and in the week to come.

Good luck, America. Tonight, we will see Democracy in action.