From Lies to Policy: How Trump’s Immigration Policy Took Shape
Tracing the escalation from manufactured crises to real-world consequences
When we look closely at the Trump administration’s immigration agenda, a broader pattern comes into focus, one that repeats across health care, taxes, and trade. It begins with a narrative scaffold built on exaggerated or false claims and ends with policy outcomes that concentrate power and material benefit.
Immigration is where this pattern is easiest to observe because the effects are so visible and the lies so obvious.
Lie Number 1: Trump constantly claimed that undocumented immigrants are making American communities unsafe, driving violent crime, and threatening public safety.
Fact:
Multiple studies have found that undocumented immigrants are less likely to commit violent crime than native-born Americans. A National Academies of Sciences review found no causal link between immigration and increased violent crime, and Texas Department of Public Safety data shows undocumented immigrants are arrested for violent crimes at significantly lower rates than U.S.-born citizens.
Why this matters:
Trump’s immigration lies resonated strongly with his supporters and helped make immigration a central issue in his 2024 victory. According to post-election polling, 82 percent of Trump voters said immigration was very important to their vote, trailing only the economy.
This messaging also set the table for an enormous expansion of immigration enforcement. ICE’s budget is now comparable in size to Israel’s defense budget.
At the same time, the administration set the unrealistic goal of one million arrests per year despite the fact that the number of undocumented immigrants with serious criminal records was never that large. To meet that number, enforcement necessarily expanded beyond violent offenders, narrowing humanitarian protections and increasingly targeting people already navigating the U.S. immigration system, as well as long-term residents without any criminal record.
Lie Number 2: Trump claimed that the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua posed a widespread and growing threat inside the United States.
Fact:
Federal and local law enforcement assessments have identified only limited, localized criminal activity linked to Tren de Aragua, involving small numbers of individuals. There is no evidence that the group controls U.S. cities, poses a nationwide threat, or operates as an arm of the Venezuelan government
Why this matters:
Based on this claim, the Trump administration attempted to invoke the 1798 Alien Enemies Act, a wartime statute that would allow people to be detained and removed as “alien enemies” without due process.
A federal court issued a preliminary injunction blocking the use of this authority while litigation proceeds. In the meantime, the administration has relied on a series of administrative rationales to achieve similar ends. One example is the claim that administrative warrants, issued internally by DHS and not reviewed by a judge, are sufficient to enter private homes.
Lie Number 3: Trump claimed there was widespread fraud in Minnesota and blamed Somali communities.
Fact:
The Feeding Our Future scandal involved a Minnesota-based nonprofit that billed the federal government hundreds of millions of dollars for meals that were never provided. As of late 2025, more than 50 people had pleaded guilty, and seven had been convicted, including the organization’s founder. While some individuals involved were Somali-American, the leader of the scheme was a white woman, and there is no evidence of broader fraud tied to the Somali community.
Why this matters:
Based on this case, Trump authorized Operation Metro Surge, sending roughly 3,000 federal immigration officers into the Minneapolis–Saint Paul metropolitan area. The connection between a food-aid fraud case and a massive immigration enforcement operation was not rational, but it was nonetheless the justification offered.
Minnesotans responded to the scale, tactics, and civil rights implications of the operation with sustained monitoring of enforcement activity. This led to escalating confrontations between federal officers and community observers, with tragic consequences.
Lie Number 4: Federal officers acted in self-defense when killing U.S. citizens Renee Good and Alex Pretti.
After the killings of Renee Good and Alex Pretti in Minneapolis, President Trump and other senior administration officials claimed that federal officers had acted in self-defense against dangerous or extremist individuals.
Fact:
Video and eyewitness accounts tell a different story. Detailed analysis by The New York Times shows no public evidence that either Renee Good or Alex Pretti posed an imminent threat justifying lethal force. In Pretti’s shooting, video evidence contradicts claims that he was attempting to attack officers with a gun. There is no evidence that either Good or Pretti was an extremist or posed a danger to the public.
Federal authorities also limited or excluded the Minnesota Bureau of Criminal Apprehension from full participation in the investigation. Under Minnesota law, the BCA is charged with independently investigating officer-involved deaths to avoid conflicts of interest and preserve public trust.
Why this matters:
The release of the public video exposed the Administration’s lie. The killings of Renee Good and Alex Pretti brought national attention to the growing tension surrounding Trump’s deportation effort.
Within days, Gregory Bovino, the Commander-at-Large of U.S. Border Patrol and a highly visible leader of enforcement operations, was removed from his post. There has also been public discussion about accountability at the top of the Department of Homeland Security, though it remains unclear how serious those efforts will be.
At the same time, DHS’s budget is pending before the U.S. Senate. Senate Democrats have threatened to demand changes to ICE’s funding, tactics, and oversight. Whether these events meaningfully alter the administration’s approach remains uncertain.
Follow the Money
No story about Trump is complete without asking who is being harmed and who is benefiting financially.
Trump’s immigration crackdown is already causing financial harm to ordinary Americans by shrinking the workforce critical to farming, food processing, construction, childcare, elder care, and hospitality, contributing to labor shortages, higher prices, and reduced access to essential services.
At the same time, Trump’s political allies have benefited. A small number of politically connected private prison and enforcement contractors, including CoreCivic and GEO Group, which together have received more than $1 billion in immigration-related contracts during the enforcement surge, are positioned to profit immensely from expanded detention capacity. DHS advertising contracts worth roughly $220 million have also gone to firms linked to senior officials, raising concerns about cronyism.
Both CoreCivic and GEO Group have been major political donors and aggressive lobbyists throughout Trump’s campaigns and presidencies, investing heavily in Republican candidates and maintaining close relationships with the administration as their federal detention business expanded.
Trump’s Theory of Power: Neo-Royalism
With all of the chaos, corruption, and cruelty, it is hard to track the underlying governing strategy.
Some scholars examining Trump’s foreign policy have identified a broader model that also applies to his domestic agenda. They describe it as neo-royalism — a system in which power is personalized rather than institutional, the state is used to reward loyalty and enrich insiders, facts are subordinate to will, and force is deployed less to solve problems than to demonstrate control and consolidate authority.
Seen through this lens, the immigration lies, the escalation of enforcement, the disregard for due process, and the concentration of financial benefit fit together.
What You Can Do
Press your Senators on DHS and ICE funding.
Congress is in the final stages of negotiating the Department of Homeland Security budget, creating a critical opportunity to push for changes to immigration policy and practice. Contact your U.S. Senators and urge them to oppose blank-check DHS and ICE appropriations and to condition funding on due process, transparency, and independent oversight. Use this link: https://act.indivisible.org/sign/ice-out-for-good-senate/
Support legal defense and court-based resistance.
Courts remain one of the few institutions capable of slowing or stopping unlawful enforcement practices. Supporting organizations that provide legal defense and pursue injunctions helps ensure abuses are challenged even when public attention fades. Two to consider are the ACLU (https://www.aclu.org/issues/immigrants-rights) and CREW (https://www.citizensforethics.org).
Talk with your own network clearly and accurately.
False claims persist because they are repeated until they feel normal. Talk with family, friends, neighbors, and coworkers about what is actually happening in immigration enforcement. Prevent false narratives from becoming the foundation for future policy. Outlets like The New York Times, ProPublica, The Marshall Project, and the Associated Press have provided careful, document-driven coverage of immigration enforcement, use of force, and government accountability.
Endnotes
Lie Number 1: Crime and Public Safety
National Academies of Sciences, The Integration of Immigrants into American Society (2015)
https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/21746/the-integration-of-immigrants-into-american-societyTexas Department of Public Safety, “Crime in Texas” (arrest rates by immigration status)
https://www.dps.texas.gov/section/crime-records/crime-texas-reports
AP VoteCast, 2024 Election Issue Priorities
https://apnews.com/projects/election-results-2024/votecast/Pew Research Center, voter issue salience
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/
U.S. Department of Homeland Security, FY2025–FY2026 Budget-in-Brief
https://www.dhs.gov/dhs-budgetIsraeli Ministry of Defense, Defense Budget Overview
https://www.mod.gov.il/English/Pages/default.aspx
Associated Press, reporting on ICE arrest targets and enforcement expansion
https://apnews.com/hub/immigrationProPublica, immigration enforcement investigations
https://www.propublica.org/series/immigration
Lie Number 2: Tren de Aragua and Emergency Powers
Associated Press, reporting on Tren de Aragua claims and law-enforcement assessments
https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-gang-tren-de-aragua-immigrationProPublica, analysis of DHS and FBI threat characterizations
https://www.propublica.org/search?q=Tren+de+Aragua
Library of Congress, Alien Enemies Act (1798)
https://www.loc.gov/item/uscode1798/Lawfare, legal analysis of attempted invocation
https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/alien-enemies-act-explained
CourtListener, federal court filings and injunctions
https://www.courtlistener.com/
ACLU, explanation of DHS administrative warrants and due process concerns
https://www.aclu.org/issues/immigrants-rights
Lie Number 3: Minnesota Fraud and Enforcement Surge
U.S. Department of Justice, Minnesota U.S. Attorney press releases
https://www.justice.gov/usao-mn/prMinnesota Reformer, investigative reporting
https://minnesotareformer.com/
Minnesota Public Radio (MPR News), reporting on federal enforcement surge
https://www.mprnews.org/
DHS Newsroom announcements
https://www.dhs.gov/newsroom
Lie Number 4: Killings of Renee Good and Alex Pretti
New York Times visual investigations of Renee Good and Alex Pretti
Minnesota Statutes §299C (BCA authority)
https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/299c
Associated Press, reporting on leadership changes and fallout
https://apnews.com/hub/homeland-securityProPublica, DHS accountability reporting
https://www.propublica.org/series/dhs
Associated Press, Senate appropriations coverage
https://apnews.com/hub/congressPolitico (paywall-free article access often available, but optional) https://www.politico.com/
Follow the Money
U.S. Department of Agriculture, farm labor shortages https://www.usda.gov/
Bureau of Labor Statistics, immigrant workforce data https://www.bls.gov/
USAspending.gov, federal contract data https://www.usaspending.gov/
ProPublica, private prison and DHS contracting investigations
https://www.propublica.org/topic/immigration
OpenSecrets, CoreCivic and GEO Group profiles https://www.opensecrets.org/
Federal Election Commission filings https://www.fec.gov/
Neo-Royalism
Cambridge University Press, Further Back to the Future: Neo-Royalism, the Trump Administration, and the Emerging International System
https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-organization/article/further-back-to-the-future-neo-royalism-the-trump-