In the upcoming midterm elections, voters are expected to register their frustration with Trump and their anxiety about the economy at the ballot box. Many strategists expect a Democratic wave. The increasing cost of healthcare has emerged as a key message in several of the year’s most competitive races.
This post is part of MurMur’s ongoing series on the 2026 midterm elections. Read the rest of the series here.
THE RACE
Iowa’s Senate race is shaping up to be a case study in how tariffs affect the farm economy. The U.S. Senate seat is open, and Democrats see a real chance of flipping it. Josh Turek, a Democratic state senator and Paralympic gold medalist, is running against Ashley Hinson, a three-term Republican congresswoman. Iowa has trended solidly Republican — Trump carried it by 13 points in 2024, and Republicans have held all six of its U.S. House seats since 2023 — but voter frustration with Trump has pulled the race to a toss-up and put three of those six House seats in play. Trump’s approval rating in Iowa has gone from positive to deeply negative since his second term began.
Hinson has stood with Trump on nearly every major test, more consistently than her fellow Iowa Republicans in Congress. In February, she voted against ending his tariffs outright. Turek, who has never held national office, has no voting record on tariffs to weigh against hers.
TARIFFS AND THEIR IMPACT
In April 2025, Trump bypassed Congress and, citing emergency powers, imposed tariffs on nearly every country the U.S. trades with. Dozens of countries retaliated, and China hit back hardest at American agriculture, targeting soybeans specifically. Trump negotiated a truce that October and extended it again this September, but the damage has stuck: U.S. soybean exports are still down roughly 40% this marketing year, from 32.2 million metric tons to 19.3 million metric tons, almost entirely because of China. Iowa, the country’s second-largest soybean producer, has taken an outsized share of that loss.
In contradiction to his protect-America policy, Trump allowed Argentina to import an additional 80,000 tons at a reduced tariff rate. Six months later, trying to bring down retail prices, he waived a separate tariff on beef from Brazil and Paraguay. Beef prices are still up 9.4% over the past year, with the USDA forecasting nearly 10% for all of 2026.
Trump’s other policies made matters worse. A 50% tariff on imported steel has driven up farm equipment prices. And the war in Iran pushed up both energy and fertilizer prices — the two biggest drivers behind a projected 4.5% rise in total farm production costs this year. All of that pressure has pushed more farms under: Iowa’s Chapter 12 bankruptcy filings jumped from 7 to 18 in a single year.
TWO APPROACHES ON THE BALLOT
This U.S. Senate race features two very different approaches to governing, not just two positions on tariffs. Turek has built his career in the state legislature working across party lines; Hinson has been one of the most reliable Republican votes in Congress. On tariffs: Turek opposes them outright, calling them part of the “chaotic” policy out of Washington that’s pushing farms toward a 1980s-style crisis. Hinson has voted to keep them in place.
Trump’s decision to drop that protection on beef put Hinson and Turek in rare agreement — both oppose it, for different reasons. She sees it as undercutting the same protection she supports everywhere else; he sees it as proof the tariffs were never really about protecting farmers in the first place.
She’s betting voters give her credit for the one time she pushed back. Turek is betting they notice it’s the exception, not the rule.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT
The next six weeks will test both candidates’ bets. Trump’s beef tariff waiver is set to expire in late November — after Election Day, on November 3 — so voters will have to judge the tradeoff before they see how it resolves.
This is the third in a MurMur Impact series tracking how national policy is shaping key Senate races ahead of November’s midterms.
SOURCES
1. Cook Political Report, “IA Senate 2026” race rating (moved to Toss Up, August 20, 2026).
2. Newsweek, “Donald Trump’s Approval Rating Goes Underwater in Two GOP-Leaning States.”
3. Congress.gov, H.J.Res.72 (119th Congress), all actions; vote taken February 11, 2026.
4. Congress.gov, Congressional Research Service, “Argentine Beef Import Quota Expansion” (IN12687).
5. MercoPress, “The US Waives Beef Tariffs for Brazil and Paraguay, but Not for Argentina and Uruguay,” August 28, 2026.
6. USDA Economic Research Service, Food Price Outlook, summary findings.
7. Farm Policy News (University of Illinois), “USDA’s 2026 Farm Income Outlook Improves, but Expenses Sharply Higher,” September 2026.
8. American Farm Bureau Federation, “Agricultural Trade: China Steps Back From U.S. Soybeans.”
9. CNBC, “U.S.-China Trade Truce Extended for Two Months, Bessent Says, as Xi Begins State Visit,” September 24, 2026.
10. KWQC, “Iowa Farm Bankruptcies More Than Double as Economic Pressures Mount,” April 28, 2026 (American Farm Bureau Federation data).
Mapping the farmers being crushed by Trump's Iran war. Check this map for the farmers in Ashely Hinson's district. The map is nationwide so you can search for any political district. Let's make it easier for farmers and the businesses that serve them know which Republican to hold accountable.
https://arcg.is/zv0ab