This post is part of MurMur’s ongoing series on the 2026 midterm elections. Read the rest of the series here.

This year’s midterms are on track to be the most expensive on record. Political ads alone are projected to cost $11.6 billion, up from $8.9 billion in 2022.

Voters have noticed. Gallup found that 89% say government corruption is widespread, the highest in 20 years, and a Brennan Center poll found that 64% of voters name campaign contributions from billionaires as a cause of corruption. The Texas Senate race between Ken Paxton and James Talarico is a prime example of record spending and billionaire giving.

How the Money Gets Around the Limits

Federal law sets three lanes. The first is personal contributions. Candidates can accept up to $3,500 per election from an individual. The second is contributions to specific party committees. Party committees are capped at $44,300 per donor per year.

The third lane is Super PACs, and those have no caps. Super PACs can take unlimited sums from individuals, corporations, and unions, and spend unlimited amounts, as long as they do not coordinate with a campaign. Some of that money arrives through 501(c)(4) nonprofits, which do not have to name their donors, so the original source never appears.

The biggest checks this year are mostly going to one party. The New York Times found that the 20 biggest donors of the cycle, who have given a combined $1.2 billion, lean heavily Republican.

As of June, Republican Party committees held roughly twice as much cash as Democratic committees. Two recent Supreme Court rulings also give political parties more flexibility to use their money to directly support their candidates.

In Texas, super PACs are carrying most of the load.

Texas: Small Donors Against One Big Check

Texas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988. Democrat James Talarico, a state representative from Austin and former middle school teacher, is trying to change that. A lifelong Presbyterian, he says his politics grows out of his faith. Republican Ken Paxton, the state’s attorney general, was impeached in 2023 and acquitted by the Texas Senate. President Trump endorsed him over Sen. John Cornyn and has since made repeated trips to Texas to campaign for him.

Talarico raised $64 million in the third quarter, mostly from small donors. Paxton raised $18 million. Yet, as of early October, Paxton and the groups backing him had outspent Talarico and his allies by more than two to one, roughly $175 million to $71 million, according to the ad tracker AdImpact. General-election ad spending reached $259 million through September, past the roughly $200 million spent on the entire 2024 race. The total, counting primaries and reserved airtime, tops $500 million.

Much of the gap traces to one donor. On Sept. 9, Elon Musk gave $75 million to the Senate Leadership Fund. The next day it moved $75 million into a new super PAC, Texas PAC, dedicated to electing Paxton. Two weeks later, the sequence repeated with $83 million, bringing the total to $158 million. Musk has given about $366 million this cycle. George and Alex Soros, the largest Democratic donors, had given $103.7 million to Democratic-aligned groups as of the Times’s late-August tally.

The Money Voters Cannot Trace

The New York Times estimated that about $1 billion in anonymous money is moving through this year’s elections, almost certainly an undercount. Both sides in Texas draw on it. A Virginia nonprofit called Preserve Texas gave more than $1 million to a pro-Paxton super PAC, and the Talarico campaign has filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission alleging that Paxton’s campaign treasurer established and controls it. A pro-Talarico super PAC received millions routed from the Sixteen Thirty Fund, a Democratic dark money group that does not disclose its donors.

Who Benefits

Both parties use these tools. Talarico has never taken corporate PAC money and has called for banning super PACs, yet a super PAC backed by several billionaires is spending on his behalf, and he has said he will not disarm unilaterally.

Republicans accounted for 72% of broadcast ad spending in the Texas race through September, and rules that give parties more flexibility to spend matter most to the party with the most to spend.

What Happens Next

Cook Political Report moved the race from Lean Republican to Toss Up in August, and it has stayed there despite the spending gap. Whether the money decides the race will be known on Nov. 3.

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Sources

Ad spending: Axios, 2026 midterm elections projected to set new advertising record (Sept. 2, 2025); U.S. News & World Report, Midterm Ad Spending Is Set to Hit $11.6 Billion as Dark Money Grows (Oct. 7, 2026)
Corruption polling: Gallup, Record-High 89% in U.S. Say Government Corruption Widespread (Sept. 2, 2026); Brennan Center for Justice, Poll: Voters Want Solutions for Government Corruption (June 2, 2026)
Federal Election Commission: Contribution limits for 2025-2026; Contributions to super PACs and hybrid PACs; Statistical Summary of 18-Month Campaign Activity of the 2025-2026 Election Cycle (party committee cash on hand as of June 30, 2026)
Supreme Court rulings: FEC Record, Supreme Court finds limits on coordinated party expenditures unconstitutional in NRSC v. FEC (July 1, 2026); The Desk, Supreme Court restores lower political ad rates for party committees (Sept. 4, 2026)
Megadonors: The New York Times, Meet the Megadonors Who Have Poured $1.2 Billion Into the Midterms (Aug. 28, 2026); Newsmax, Top 20 Midterm Donors Give $1.2 Billion (summary of the Times analysis)
The candidates: Newsweek, James Talarico Texas Senate Race: List of Celebrity Donors and Endorsements; Religion Unplugged, As Talarico Eyes Senate Bid, Religion Becomes a Texas Battleground (June 16, 2026); Courthouse News, Trump endorses Texas AG Ken Paxton in heated GOP Senate runoff (May 19, 2026); NPR via WWNO, Trump heads to Texas to campaign for Paxton and De La Cruz (Oct. 7, 2026)
Texas fundraising and ad spending: Axios, Trump names scapegoats as Republicans sweat in Texas (Oct. 16, 2026); NPR, Texas Senate race shatters state’s campaign spending record (Oct. 5, 2026); KERA, Senate GOP smashing political spending records in Texas with ad-buying binge for Ken Paxton (Oct. 2, 2026) and More than $500 million has been spent on advertising in Texas’ U.S. Senate race (Oct. 15, 2026)
Musk’s contributions: The Hill, Musk bankrolls PAC spending big on Paxton in Texas (Oct. 15, 2026); CBS News, Elon Musk donates over $150 million to Senate GOP group, assisting Ken Paxton; CNBC, Elon Musk gives $276 million to Republican groups, becomes biggest known 2026 midterm donor (Oct. 12, 2026)
Dark money and the candidates’ positions: Political Wire, How Dark Money Is Washing Over the 2026 Election (Aug. 31, 2026), quoting the Times; CBS News, Dark money in Texas Senate race spurs Talarico complaint to FEC against Paxton (Sept. 2, 2026); The Texas Tribune, Dark money fuels attack ads in final stretch of Texas’ U.S. Senate primaries (Feb. 20, 2026); Houston Public Media, Here are the megadonors and dark money groups boosting James Talarico’s anti-billionaire Senate bid (May 14, 2026); James Talarico for Senate, Corruption & Democracy
Race rating: Cook Political Report, Texas Senate race

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