The Ceasefire That Isn’t Peace

Peace isn't the result of a signed agreement; it comes from confronting what destroyed it in the first place.

The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas went into effect on October 10th, the first phase of Donald Trump’s 20-point peace plan aimed at ending the two-year war in Gaza.

Immediately, Trump took a victory lap, claiming he had “brought peace to the Middle East” and hinting at a Nobel Peace Prize. But let’s pause the celebration.

History shows that in this region, ceasefires rarely mean peace. Since 2008, Israel and Hamas have entered into at least nine ceasefire agreements, three during this war alone. Both sides have violated past deals, often disputing who broke them first.

And this agreement appears no different. Violence has already resumed in parts of Gaza. Let’s look at what’s actually in the deal and where it could fall apart.

The agreement.

What Hamas Agreed To:

• Release all remaining hostages, alive and dead.

• Transfer administration of Gaza to a Palestinian technocratic authority, effectively relinquishing its role in governing the territory.

• Disarmament was not formally accepted. Trump announced it as part of his plan, but Hamas never agreed in writing.

What Israel Agreed To:

• Release roughly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners.

• Withdraw troops to an “agreed-upon line,” leaving Israel in control of about 58% of Gaza initially, with a gradual pullback to 17% as conditions are met.

• Allow 600 humanitarian aid trucks per day and reopen key crossings. A notable concession given that Israel previously denied restricting aid.

What’s Happened Since October 10th

The Good: Hostage Exchanges

• Hamas has released all 20 living hostages.

• Israel has released 1,968 Palestinian prisoners.

The Bad: Violence and Aid Restrictions

• The day after the deal was signed, Israeli forces killed six Palestinians in northern Gaza, claiming they crossed into the security buffer zone.

• Israel has since cut humanitarian aid deliveries in half, from 600 to 300 trucks daily, and is still blocking the Rafah crossing, a vital entry point for supplies.

• Israel accuses Hamas of delaying the return of hostages’ bodies, which it says violates the ceasefire terms.

How It Could All Fall Apart

1. The Hostages’ Bodies

Hamas is obligated to return the bodies of all hostages, a process that could take months. The U.S., Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey have launched a joint effort to assist, but progress is slow. The UN estimates it could take 10–15 years to clear Gaza’s rubble.

Israel continues to ban trucks and heavy equipment from entering, the very tools needed to recover remains.

Hamas’s delay was predictable, but Netanyahu is already using it as pretext to accuse Hamas of violating the deal.

2. Withdraw Lines and Disarmament

Israel currently controls roughly 60% of Gaza, including most of its agricultural land, leaving civilians dependent on international aid. Aid, which Israel also restricts.

Israel’s “gradual withdrawal” to the agreed upon line is tied to several vague conditions:

• Deployment of an international force to destroy tunnels and conduct counterinsurgency operations.

• “Demilitarization” of Gaza, though the agreement doesn’t define what that means.

This lack of clarity gives Netanyahu broad discretion to delay or halt withdrawal indefinitely.

Hamas, for its part, only accepted an earlier draft that required “decommissioning offensive weapons.” That language was later changed, reportedly by Netanyahu, Jared Kushner, and Steve Witkoff, to “demilitarization of offensive, terror, and military infrastructure.”

The change effectively ensures that Hamas will never fully comply, giving Israel justification to resume military action at any time.

3. Israeli Settlers

If Israel pauses its withdrawal, the risk of settler encroachment into Gaza becomes acute. Reports indicate that hundreds of settler families have already gathered at the border, prepared to move in once restrictions ease.

Any such move would almost certainly provoke armed resistance, and with it, a return to war.

What Next?

For the people of Gaza and Israel, peace is not an abstraction. It will not come from the signing of a deal, but from the willingness to confront what destroyed it in the first place.

For two years, Gaza has been reduced to rubble, and Israel consumed by fear and vengeance. This ceasefire, fragile as it is, offers one more chance to choose a different path, one rooted in dignity and coexistence rather than dominance. Yet in the face of Israel’s continued expansion in the West Bank, its renewed restrictions on Gaza’s aid, a vacuum of legitimate Palestinian leadership, and a U.S. foreign policy run by real estate investors instead of seasoned diplomats, that better path feels distant.

The hard truth is that Netanyahu and Hamas have become politically co-dependent, each sustaining the other’s power through perpetual conflict. Until that cycle is broken, no lasting peace is possible. Breaking it will require real leadership from the United States, Europe, and the Arab world. Leadership grounded not in deals or optics, but in accountability and courage.

The question now isn’t whether this ceasefire holds; it’s whether anyone in power is truly committed to peace, or merely to the appearance of it.