Trump's War Failed. His Deal Is Failing Too.
Trump signed a surrender at Versailles. Israel destroyed it before the ink dried.
This is "What I'm Hearing" — a somewhat daily guide to the stories that matter, drawn from the best pro-democracy political writers working right now, with my analysis on top.
Vance Negotiates, But The House Is Already On Fire.
JD Vance, Jared Kushner, and Steve Witkoff just concluded 18 hours of negotiations with Iranian officials at a Swiss mountaintop resort. Vance emerged Monday morning, calling it “a successful foundation” for a final deal. According to Vance, Iran agreed to allow IAEA nuclear inspectors back into the country. The two sides agreed on a 60-day road map. Qatar and Pakistan, the mediators, called the session “positive” and “constructive.” Technical talks continue.
That’s the spin. Here’s the context.
While Vance was sitting across from Iranian negotiators, Trump was posting threats to “hit Iran very hard again.” The MOU that brought them to the table explicitly prohibits threats of force against the other party. Trump violated his own agreement in real time while his vice president was trying to implement it. Iran’s chief negotiator responded: the military is “ready to respond.” Lindsey Graham went further on Fox News: if diplomacy fails, “we’re going to take the Strait of Hormuz. We’re going to run it.” That’s a sitting U.S. senator proposing the permanent military seizure of an international waterway.
The deal that produced these talks was signed five days ago and is already in tatters.
On June 17, Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian signed a 14-article memorandum of understanding to end the war. Trump signed it at Versailles during dinner with French President Emmanuel Macron. For about 72 hours, it looked like the war might be over. Tankers started moving. Oil dropped toward $80. The Strait of Hormuz reopened. Trump said Friday that “ships are flying out of the Hormuz Strait like nobody’s ever seen before.”
On Saturday — three days later — Iran closed the Strait again.
The original MOU required “the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon.” Iran would reopen the Strait. The U.S. would lift the blockade and begin sanctions relief, including access to $6 billion in frozen assets. Iran reaffirmed it would not pursue nuclear weapons. A 60-day clock would begin for final negotiations. On paper, it was a weaker version of the Obama-era JCPOA, purchased at the cost of thousands dead, a destabilized region, and months of $4+ gas. Robert Hubbell called it plainly: “Trump surrenders to Iran.” Senior U.S. officials told Zeteo that Iran has Trump “by the balls.”
But even that deal couldn’t hold because Israel kept attacking Lebanon.
Iran’s Foreign Minister was explicit: “Any military attack by Israel against Lebanon from this point forward will be regarded by us as a violation of the memorandum.” Israel’s far-right National Security Minister Ben-Gvir was equally explicit: “Trump’s agreement does not bind us.” Israel’s Defense Minister Katz said Sunday that Israel “will not withdraw from the security zone in Lebanon” and the IDF is free “to act to eliminate threats.” Israeli strikes continued, killing over a dozen people in southern Lebanon hours after the MOU went into effect. The Lebanese death toll since March 2 has now exceeded 4,000. Amnesty International said this week that Israel’s forced displacement orders in Lebanon amount to war crimes.
On Saturday, Iran’s military command declared the Strait closed, citing “the explicit breach of the first clause of the post-war memorandum of understanding by the United States” and Israel’s “continuous and ongoing violations of the ceasefire in southern Lebanon.”
So what did Sunday’s 18-hour marathon actually produce? A “deconfliction cell” for Lebanon — meaning the parties agreed to set up a phone line to try to stop the fighting that the MOU was supposed to have already stopped. Kushner proposed that Iran’s unfrozen assets be used to purchase American soybeans, corn, and wheat — which Vance called “a classic Trump deal.” Iran agreed to let IAEA inspectors back in — something they had already agreed to under the JCPOA before Trump tore it up. And both sides agreed to keep talking.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi called the Lebanon deconfliction cell “the first real test” of the agreement. He also said that other provisions of the MOU will not be implemented until the Lebanon issue is resolved. Iran’s president said this morning: “What is certain is that we will never back down from the right to enrich uranium.” And a Middle Eastern official told CBS News that Trump’s own envoys are out of sync with Secretary Rubio on how to handle Israel and Lebanon — with Israeli officials viewing the decision to include Lebanon in the MOU as a concession to Iran that they never agreed to.
Trump’s War Failed
Trump launched a war with Iran, which has cost at least $40 billion and potentially $72 billion when replacement costs are factored in. He promised "unconditional surrender." Instead, he got a memorandum of understanding that gave Iran sanctions relief, access to frozen assets, and no nuclear concessions.
The Strait of Hormuz was open before the war. It is closed again now. Iran has demonstrated it can shut down 20% of the world’s seaborne oil trade at will. Over 3,600 Iranians have been killed, including hundreds of children. More than 4,000 Lebanese have been killed since March. Thirteen U.S. service members are dead.
Iran's regime is still standing. Its enriched uranium stockpile is intact. Its president says Iran will never give up the right to enrich. Hezbollah is still armed. Israel's defense minister says the IDF will not withdraw from Lebanon. And Iran now controls a toll system on the most important shipping lane on earth — a capability it did not have before Trump started the war.
Read more: NPR, NBC News, Al Jazeera, CBS News, Robert Hubbell, Zeteo, The Bulwark
That's your Monday. The Strait is closed again. Israel says it's not bound by the agreement.