Update on Gaza: A Fragile Pause, A Troubled Path to Peace
What we need for a lasting peace in Gaza.
On October 13, to great fanfare, President Trump declared that the agreement he announced regarding Gaza marked:
“the historic dawn of a new Middle East… the skies are calm, the guns are silent… the Holy Land is finally at peace.”
Sixty days later, with the Middle East slipping from the headlines and U.S. attention shifting to Ukraine, the question is: has peace taken hold?
The clear answer is no. Despite Trump’s claims, the October deal was not a peace settlement. It was a ceasefire, intended to pause hostilities so a broader political framework could take shape.
The U.S. has since offered a 20-point peace plan, endorsed by the UN Security Council, outlining security guarantees, transitional governance, and reconstruction oversight. This endorsement gives the plan international legitimacy, including authorization of an international stabilization force. But it remains a roadmap, not an agreement.
So where do things stand? And are we any closer to peace?
Status of the Ceasefire
The agreement called for Israel to cease fighting, withdraw troops from most of Gaza, and allow humanitarian aid into the territory. In exchange, Hamas would release all hostages, living and deceased.
Hostilities
Full-scale operations have paused, but airstrikes, drone strikes, and localized clashes have resulted in roughly 360 Palestinians killed and about 900 injured. Three Israeli soldiers were also killed.
Israeli forces have partially withdrawn but still control just over half of Gaza’s territory, around 55–60%, more than what mediators and outside observers expected when the deal was announced.
Humanitarian Aid remains lower than the level of aid that came in during the previous ceasefire, and is still short of meeting Gaza’s needs.
Hamas has released all 20 hostages and has returned 26 of the 28 deceased hostages’ remains.
It is essential to realize that the situation of the Palestinian people in Gaza is still horrific, with scattered violence, inadequate access to shelter, food, water, energy, or medical care.
Why Peace Isn’t Moving Forward
Israel’s current ruling coalition opposes Palestinian statehood, rejects outside oversight, and favors long-term security control over Gaza. It holds power by a razor-thin majority, making it nearly impossible for Netanyahu to pursue any diplomatic concessions without risking his government.
Hamas, for its part, cannot rebuild Gaza without international support, yet the 20-point plan requires its demilitarization, which it views as an existential threat. Any transitional authority would also sideline Hamas politically.
Neither party currently sees negotiation as the safer option.
Moving Forward Toward Peace
So what could pressure Israel and Hamas to move toward peace and an autonomous Palestinian state?
1. Israeli Politics
Israel’s upcoming election will shape its path. Experts see outcomes as too uncertain to predict. If the current coalition remains in power, Israeli policy will continue to oppose any comprehensive peace process. If the coalition fractures or is replaced, new diplomatic possibilities could open. The stakes could not be higher.
2. Pressures on Hamas
Hamas’s infrastructure and command systems have been heavily damaged. It cannot rebuild without international support, but it rejects the 20-point plan because it requires demilitarization and reduces Hamas’s governing authority.
Regionally, Qatar, long Hamas’s political and financial patron, is signaling a desire to shift responsibility to a broader Arab coalition as the political cost of backing Hamas rises. Egypt favors a diminished Hamas due to security concerns in Sinai. Saudi Arabia is prioritizing diplomacy tied to Palestinian political rights. Iran, meanwhile, encourages resistance, reinforcing Hamas’s hard-line position.
These pressures tug Hamas in competing directions but do not yet compel compromise.
3. External Influence
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia has the resources to rebuild Gaza and the diplomatic weight to reshape the region, but only if there is credible movement toward Palestinian self-determination. Trump also wants a deeper partnership with Saudi Arabia, but given his erratic leadership style, it is unclear how far he will push Israel to accommodate Saudi demands.
United States
The U.S. is best positioned to align Israeli and regional interests behind the 20-point plan. But Trump faces competing priorities: strengthening ties with Saudi Arabia while maintaining close alignment with Netanyahu. These conflicting goals have prevented Washington from applying the consistent pressure needed to move Israel toward the plan.
Sixty days in, Gaza is in a fragile pause built on a narrow ceasefire, surrounded by a broader political plan neither party has accepted, and reinforced by a UN framework that remains aspirational.
Real progress depends on three forces aligning: Israeli politics, regional diplomacy led by Saudi Arabia, and credible Palestinian representation. U.S. leadership remains essential, but divided priorities have begun to limit its influence.
What You Can Do
Given the United States’ oversized influence in this conflict, we, as American voters, have a real role to play. Many Americans, particularly young people, people of color, and American Jews, have been horrified by Israel’s relentless assault on Gaza. An assault that Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International have described as war crimes and crimes against humanity.
Despite this, Democratic leaders have been slow to rethink U.S. policy toward Israel or use America’s substantial leverage, including billions of dollars in annual military aid, to push for a different course. Congress has a critical role here: it authorizes military assistance and can set conditions on how that aid is used.
As we head into the 2025 midterm elections, one meaningful action you can take is to help ensure that Democratic candidates on the ballot support using U.S. leverage to move Israel toward a sustainable peace. J Street endorses primary candidates whose values align with its pro-Israel, pro-peace, pro-democracy positions. You can explore their endorsements here.
If you’re able, consider supporting these candidates financially. If you live in or near one of their districts, talk to friends and family about why these races matter and encourage them to participate.
Finally, it’s important to remember that this conflict is deeply personal for many Americans, especially Jewish and Palestinian communities. People often hesitate to speak for fear of being misunderstood or accused of bias. Still, thoughtful engagement matters, and J Street offers useful guidelines for having these conversations with friends and family.
Endnotes
1. Trump’s October 13 remarks
Coverage of Trump’s announcement and quote: https://apnews.com/
2. Nature of the October deal (a ceasefire, not a peace agreement)
AP and BBC reporting: https://apnews.com/ https://bbc.com/news
3. UN endorsement of the U.S. 20-point plan
UN Security Council resolution authorizing an international stabilization force and endorsing the U.S. framework: https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/
4. Casualties since the ceasefire
Reuters and AP casualty reporting: https://reuters.com/world https://apnews.com/
5. Israeli control of 55–60% of Gaza
Washington Post and Guardian assessments:
https://washingtonpost.com/world
https://theguardian.com/world
6. Humanitarian aid levels remain below earlier ceasefire periods
UN OCHA updates: https://ocha.un.org/
7. Hostage releases and remains returned
AP and Haaretz reporting: https://apnews.com/ https://haaretz.com/
8. Gaza’s humanitarian conditions (“catastrophic”)
UNRWA and WHO situation reports: https://unrwa.org/ https://who.int/
9. Human Rights Watch findings on war crimes
HRW documentation of unlawful attacks, collective punishment, and other war crimes: https://hrw.org/middle-east
10. Amnesty International findings on war crimes and crimes against humanity
Amnesty reporting on indiscriminate attacks, forced displacement, and systemic abuses: https://amnesty.org/en/latest/news/
11. Israeli coalition dynamics and political constraints
Israel Democracy Institute and Times of Israel political analysis: https://en.idi.org.il/ https://timesofisrael.com/
12. Hamas rejection of demilitarization and transitional governance
Al Jazeera and Middle East Eye reporting: https://aljazeera.com/ https://middleeasteye.net/
13. Regional pressure on Hamas (Qatar, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iran)
Reuters and Financial Times reporting on shifting regional roles:
https://reuters.com/middle-east
https://ft.com/middle-east
14. U.S. policy contradictions (Saudi normalization vs. Netanyahu alignment)
New York Times and Foreign Affairs analysis: https://nytimes.com/ https://foreignaffairs.com/
15. U.S. public opinion
Polling from Pew, Data for Progress, and J Street: https://pewresearch.org/ https://dataforprogress.org/ https://jstreet.org/polling/