What I'm Hearing - April 8th

One story today, Trump's disastrous war with Iran.

This is "What I'm Hearing" — a somewhat daily guide to the stories that matter, drawn from the best pro-democracy political writers working right now, with my analysis on top.

Trump Went To War. Iran Won The Strait.

Ninety minutes before Trump threatened to cause “a whole civilization to die tonight,” Iran’s foreign minister offered a 10-point framework for negotiations and Trump took it. The result: a two-week ceasefire that looks a lot like a strategic defeat dressed up as a win.

Writing in The Bulwark, Bill Kristol laid it out: Iran’s regime remains in place. Its enriched uranium is still stockpiled. Russia and China remain ready to rearm Tehran. A month ago, Trump promised “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER.” What he got was Iran’s 10-point proposal as the basis for negotiations. Kristol called it “a defeat and a warning.”

Zeteo went further, quoting former Israeli intelligence officer Danny Citrinowicz: if Iran secured guarantees based on its 10 principles, “that is not a marginal outcome, it is a strategic win for Tehran.” Former State Department official Aaron David Miller put it simply: “Iran has won another round.” Political scientist Robert Pape called it “the biggest US strategic defeat since Vietnam.”

The ceasefire framework reportedly includes potential Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz passage — with Iran eyeing a $2 million fee per ship — and sanctions relief. Trump, apparently taken with the concept of tolls, told ABC this morning he was “thinking of doing it as a joint venture.” That arrangement is markedly worse for the United States than before the war.

And now we know how we got here. The New York Times published a devastating reconstruction of how Trump decided to go to war. On February 11, Netanyahu sat across from Trump in the White House Situation Room and delivered an hour-long pitch: Iran was ripe for regime change, its ballistic missile program could be destroyed in weeks, the Strait of Hormuz would stay open, and retaliation against U.S. interests would be minimal. Mossad would help ignite an uprising. They even had a replacement leader picked out: the exiled son of Iran’s last shah. Every single one of those predictions was wrong.

The next day, Trump’s own team pushed back hard. CIA Director Ratcliffe called Netanyahu’s regime change scenario “farcical.” Rubio’s response: “In other words, it’s bullshit.” Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. Dan Caine told Trump the Israeli plan was overblown. White House communications staff warned of the political fallout from starting a war after campaigning against new wars. U.S. intelligence concluded the opposite of what Netanyahu promised, that war would harden the regime, not topple it.

Trump’s response to Netanyahu’s pitch: “Sounds good to me.” Seventeen days later, he authorized Operation Epic Fury from Air Force One. No congressional vote. No imminent threat to the United States. A war launched on the word of a foreign leader whose own intelligence services oversold every claim, and whose predictions have now been proven wrong on every count. Over 3,400 people are dead. The Strait is now under Iran’s control. Its regime is still standing. And the president who started it just accepted their terms.

Read more: The Bulwark, Zeteo, Popular Information, NYTimes

That's your Wednesday. The ceasefire clock is ticking — two weeks until we're right back where we started. And last night's election results from Georgia and Wisconsin are in.