Why a Progressive Media Ecosystem is NOT Enough to Defeat MAGA.

We need to reach less engaged voters, and they aren't listening to your political podcast.

One of the biggest takeaways from the 2024 election was the need to develop a progressive media ecosystem. This reaction was understandable. Donald Trump, his campaign, and the larger MAGAsphere have done a great job cultivating right-wing media platforms.

Starting with Fox News and culminating in a massive web of podcasts, social media accounts, YouTube channels, and digital media networks, the right is perfectly positioned to communicate in this new decentralized era of algorithms and information bubbles. This clearly impacted the election results, exemplified by Trump's gains with young Gen Z men.

In short, Trump winning the internet might be why Trump won the election.

So, our desire to counter that by building a stronger progressive media ecosystem is natural. The Young Turks and Pod Save America can’t do it all.

But allow me to zig where others are zagging for a minute. I’m afraid that focusing on building a progressive¹ media ecosystem is not enough. I’m not against the idea; in fact, I think it is critical, but more importantly, we need to be laser-focused on WHO we are talking to, where they get information, and what issues they care about.

The TLDR of it all:

• “Less engaged” voters were a significant factor in Donald Trump’s re-election.

• I believe the majority of voters fall into the “less engaged” category.

• These are the easiest voters to persuade.

• “Less engaged” voters do not consume information the same way that “engaged” voters do and most progressive (and conservative) media is fighting over the attention of the same pool of “engaged” voters.

• Us political junkies are very bad at communicating with “less engaged” voters.

• Reaching “less engaged” voters requires a very different communication strategy, and a critical component is YOU.

“Less Engaged” Voters Supported Donald Trump

In every election cycle, there are two kinds of voters: engaged and less engaged². Engaged voters include political junkies - the ones who watch debates, listen to political podcasts, read political Substacks, debate politics on TikTok, volunteer, donate and knock on doors. Less-engaged voters don’t spend their time consumed with politics. They vote occasionally, and when they do, it’s often based on cultural signals and issues that directly affect their lives.

Navigator Research has released a survey outlining the role “less engaged” voters played in the 2024 election³. Here are a few key stats from their survey:

• Navigator found that “less engaged” voters comprised 33% of the electorate in 2024. Trump won these voters by 9%.

• 19% of the total electorate did not vote in 2020. Trump won those voters by 12%.

• 49% said inflation and cost of living were their top issues; 33% said jobs and the economy; 29% said immigration and the border.

• Trump beat Harris by 19% on the economy with “less engaged” voters.

Trump did much better at attracting less engaged voters, but his support among these voters is way less dedicated to him than his MAGA base.

• 60% of “less engaged” voters disapprove of Donald Trump personally.

• 49% approved of his previous presidency compared to 46% that disapproved.

So, in summary: “Less engaged” voters were more likely to support Donald Trump, yet they do NOT approve of Donald Trump by a large margin. In our razor-thin elections, how this voting bloc swings is more than decisive.

But wait, there’s more⁴…

Less Engaged Voters ARE The Majority of Voters?

According to their survey, only 33% of the electorate fell into the “less engaged” category, defined by responding that politics is either “not too important” or “not important at all.” This means 67% of voters would be classified as “engaged.”

I’m calling cap. Instead of classifying engagement by how voters identify the importance of politics to them, let’s look at voting history to sort this better out.

Let’s define engaged voters as those who consistently vote in mid-terms and general elections. And let’s define less engaged as someone who skips mid-term elections and only votes in the general. With that criteria in mind, here is the turnout of past mid-term elections:

• 2022 - 46%

• 2018 - 49%

• 2014 - 36%

• 2010 - 41%

According to PEW, only 37% of voters voted in the previous three national elections (2018, 2020, 2022).

This means that someone who regularly votes in mid-term and general elections is in the minority of voters. If you are someone who regularly votes in mid-term and general elections AND regularly consumes political news, you are in the minority of the minority of voters.

Understanding this is critical to how we should talk about politics and persuade voters.

Why This Matters?

Think about the person who regularly consumes political podcasts and reads political Substacks. Overwhelmingly, these people vote in primaries, midterms, and general elections. This is true on both sides of the aisle. Pod Save America listeners fall into the same engaged voter category as Daily Wire readers. The Young Turks and Candice Owen are both appealing to engaged voters.

But we know that this pool of engaged voters is, at a maximum, only 37% of the electorate. 67% of the electorate does not vote in every primary or midterm and does not engage with political content regularly. But that is where the winnable votes are. That 67% includes the voters who voted for Donald Trump while also disapproving of him⁵.

This is the problem with a singular focus on a progressive media ecosystem: Winnable voters probably won’t engage with that content. So, yes, we need more progressive media, but we also need to ensure that it meets the voters where they are.

The power of the MAGA media ecosystem is NOT how many creators they have or how big their podcast ratings are. They successfully met voters, specifically young men, where they were—going on comedian’s podcasts like Theo Von or Andrew Schulz, attending UFC fights, or appearing with popular YouTubers like Logan Paul and the Nelk Boys. Large non-political platforms became a bit more political because the right courted them. This is how MAGA tapped into a pool of less engaged voters—going to them, not building platforms and waiting for them to come.

Progressives need to mimic this strategy. We need to identify the nonpolitical platforms we can appeal to, such as podcasts like Call Her Daddy. Identifying the nonpolitical areas where we can connect with less engaged voters is as important as developing progressive media.

It’s not one or the other; we need to do both. But if we just build progressive media and ignore expanding who we talk to, we will be destined for another electoral defeat.

YOU Have A Critical Role In This

A key part of this strategy is peer-to-peer conversations. Remember, 67% of the electorate doesn’t regularly vote. So, chances are, you know many people in the “less engaged” category. Talking to your friends about politics can have a real impact.

This doesn’t mean being annoying and forcing politics into every conversation. But as news cuts through the clutter, particularly economic news, having informed and helpful discussions with your friends and families can change their minds.

This Substack is going to be dedicated to helping you do that. Our focus will be providing simple to-understand breakdowns of important issues that impact people’s lives. Our goal is to help you both understand what is happening AND provide some suggestions for how you can talk about these issues with your less engaged friends.

It doesn’t matter whether you are interested in having one-on-one conversations at a party or sharing content with thousands of people on social media—YOU are the best messenger.

And I want to hear from you. Please comment or message me if there are particular issues you would like to learn more about. I want this Substack to be helpful. Together we can get through these next four years.

1. Or even more pro-democracy outlets like The Bulwark, for instance.

2. To be clear, I separate “engaged” and “informed.” January 6 rioters, VERY ENGAGED not very informed. There are plenty of voters who are less engaged but still remain informed on certain issues. So the distinction is more about how much time they spend consuming news and thinking about politics.

3. Navigator defines “less engaged” as people who responded that politics is “not too important” or “not important at all” to them.

4. Price is right voice.

5. To be clear, I’m not saying that 67% of the electorate is moveable. It’s probably more like 10% but that 10% is found within the less engaged category.