Donald Trump won the popular vote, every swing state and will enter the presidency controlling all three branches of government. It’s a nightmare scenario that will have severe consequences for our country and the world, many of which we are starting to witness.
It is understandable to view the election as a total rejection of the Democratic party. Across the board, the country shifted right. Trump won the suburbs, expanded his victory in rural areas, and over-performed in urban areas, making significant gains with Latino voters.
Harris underperformed in safe blue states like California, New York, and Illinois. This map from the New York Times is an excellent visualization of how the country shifted overall.
If these trends continue, Democrats will remain in the political wilderness for decades.
Donald Trump and the Republican party are understandably feeling themselves. They view this victory as a landslide, delivering them a clear electoral mandate.
They are wrong.
This was not a landslide, and there is no clear mandate.
We finally have a clearer picture of how this election played out, and despite winning the popular vote, Donald Trump will fall short of 50% of the vote share. For a third straight election, the majority of voters chose someone other than Donald Trump.
For context, in 2020, Joe Biden won 51.3% of the popular vote, winning by about 7 million votes. Trump will defeat Harris by a smaller margin and only by about 2.5 million votes.
Donald Trump’s margin of victory in the popular vote ranks 44th out of 51 presidential elections since 1824. This was a historically close election, not a landslide or mandate.
To see what a real mandate looks like we just need to go back to 2008. Barack Obama won 53% of the popular vote, beating John McCain by 10 million votes and winning states like Indiana, Iowa, Florida, and Ohio. He entered the presidency with large margins in the House and a 60-seat majority in the Senate.
The Country DID NOT Shift Toward the Right
The electorate shift towards the right has become gospel in the media and post-election analysis. I even wrote that at the beginning of this post. This is wrong.
Yes, there were huge shifts in the margins across the country towards Donald Trump. But that does not mean the country shifted to the right or has gone full MAGA. In fact, you could argue that the opposite is true.
In the five swing states that held Senate races, four of them were won by Democrats. In North Carolina, the Democrat won the Governor’s race. Trump won Arizona by 6% and North Carolina by 3% (two of his biggest swing state victories), yet Democrats won statewide races in both states. Why?
Because the Republican Party nominated two very MAGA politicians, and the voters rejected them, even though they voted for Trump. If the country was really shifting towards the right, we would not see Democrats winning the most competitive Senate races.
But what about the house? Yes, the Republicans still control the House of Representatives. But they have the smallest majority since our country has had 50 states. They would have expanded their majority if there were a shift to the right or a clear mandate for Trump.
And finally, progressive policies won in red states. Arizona, Missouri, Montana, and Nevada all voted to protect access to abortion. 57% of Floridians voted to protect abortion access, just 3% short of what was needed to succeed.
Alaska and Missouri voted to expand the minimum wage and require businesses to pay for sick leave.
To summarize, Donald Trump’s electoral victory was one of the narrowest in our country’s history. The majority of voters chose someone else for president, Democrats won most of the competitive statewide races, and progressive policies won even in red states.
That is NOT what an electoral mandate looks like.
Why Does This Matter?
Who cares? Donald Trump still has all the power he needs to cause some real damage. It doesn’t matter how close his victory was.
This is true. And maybe this entire post is just some pathetic coping mechanism, an oratory opioid to numb the pain.
Or maybe, inside these numbers is the path forward for resisting.
I firmly believe the country did not vote for the MAGA agenda and that if Donald Trump overplays his hand, there will be political consequences. According to exit polls, Donald Trump’s approval rating was 42%, yet his vote share was 48%. That means that 6% of his vote came from people who do not like him.
That 6% IS the political power in this country. A 6% swing in the midterms would see Democrats take back the House and have a real shot at the Senate. A 6% swing in 2028 would see Democrats take back the presidency.
That 6% (and probably a lot more) did not vote for Attorney General Gaetz and Fox News running our military. They did not vote for House Republicans discriminating against the first transgender woman in Congress. They did not vote for massive cuts to the social safety net.
If Trump tries to pass a national abortion ban or use executive actions to curtail access to abortion care, we should probably remind the Senators and representatives from Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Kansas, Arizona, and Alaska that their constituents have voted to protect abortion access in their states.
The margin of this election is no consolation prize for families that will be separated, women who will lose access to abortion, and children who will lose their healthcare. It’s going to suck for some time.
But let’s not forget that the pendulum of politics always swings back. And if Trump goes full MAGA, which he will, we need to be ready to present an alternate path for voters he inevitably loses.
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